May 12, 2025 - Tariffs, increasing stem sizes and changing trade patterns formed much of the debate at the Minor Bulks session at this year’s packed Geneva Dry summit. 

Wlillem Vermaat, shipping director at Heidelberg Materials Trading, the second largest cement producer globally, noted that commodity trade flows tend to adjust to market changes. For example, US cement imports shifted from Canada and Mexico to Vietnam and Turkey when borders were closed.

Arthur English, the CEO of open hatch specialist G2 Ocean, focused on forest products and steel in his opening comments of the session.

Forest products such as lumber and wood pulp were flat in 2024 due to weak US housing starts. Steel exports from China surged to 115m tonnes, up 25% year-on-year, but port congestion in South America and anti-dumping investigations in six countries – Vietnam, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, India –  have created uncertainty. Asian nations are the primary importers of Chinese steel, with US imports being minor, English pointed out.

The panel spent plenty of time discussing the bauxite and alumina trades. At 200m tonnes a year, the seaborne trade of bauxite can hardly be described as a minor bulk anymore, the panel felt. 

Bauxite trade has doubled in under a decade, driven by Guinea’s exports to China, Robert Haggquist, charterer and decarbonisation lead at South32, a miner, told delegates. Chinese domestic bauxite is depleting, boosting imports. Alumina trade – now at 40m tonnes a year – is growing, with Indonesia refining domestically due to export bans, supported by Chinese investments. US tariffs have disrupted the aluminium trade, redirecting Canadian exports to Europe and increasing Middle Eastern and African supply to the US, delegates were told.

Derek Langston, the session’s moderator and global head of dry research at broker Braemar, also discussed nickel ore, noting how China imported 38m tonnes of the commodity last year, primarily from Guinea, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Potential export bans and elections in the Philippines add uncertainty to this trade, he warned, neatly bringing the discussion back to a recurring theme, namely trade adjustments with G2 Ocean’s English and Bas Van Steijnen, chief risk officer at Nova Marine Carriers, discussing how tariffs and market shifts are driving trade flow changes such as Canadian aluminium to Europe, Indian smelters targeting the US, and Brazilian wood pulp replacing US exports to China.

“At the end of the day, the market finds an equilibrium and trades will happen, and I think you’ll see that with tariffs as well,” Van Steijnen said.

Vessel size trends were also under the microscope in the busy session, with panellists noting how larger vessels are coming to dominate some cargo types with manganese and chrome ore now a common sight on capes. However, port restrictions cap stem sizes.

“Shipowners, they have big egos and they always think bigger is better,” quipped Heidelberg’s Vermaat.

Smaller vessels remain relevant for “proper shipping” versus commodity trading on larger panamax and above vessels, Van Steijnen argued.